← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Jacksonville University1.39+6.90vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+6.13vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania1.60+5.38vs Predicted
-
4Catholic University of America1.31+5.02vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+0.86vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University1.62+1.77vs Predicted
-
7Princeton University1.87+2.00vs Predicted
-
8Villanova University0.66+4.08vs Predicted
-
9Jacksonville University1.20+0.78vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College0.42-2.91vs Predicted
-
11Tufts University1.67-3.44vs Predicted
-
12Tufts University1.30-3.21vs Predicted
-
13University of Vermont0.72-1.22vs Predicted
-
14University of Texas0.11-0.24vs Predicted
-
15SUNY Maritime College0.63-2.77vs Predicted
-
16Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-3.26vs Predicted
-
17SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+0.72vs Predicted
-
18University of Virginia-0.87-0.65vs Predicted
-
19Washington College-0.26-3.53vs Predicted
-
20Webb Institute1.73-12.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.9Jacksonville University1.396.5%1st Place
-
8.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.666.9%1st Place
-
8.38University of Pennsylvania1.606.0%1st Place
-
9.02Catholic University of America1.315.7%1st Place
-
5.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4613.0%1st Place
-
7.77Fordham University1.628.2%1st Place
-
9.0Princeton University1.876.2%1st Place
-
12.08Villanova University0.662.5%1st Place
-
9.78Jacksonville University1.204.6%1st Place
-
7.09SUNY Maritime College0.427.9%1st Place
-
7.56Tufts University1.677.8%1st Place
-
8.79Tufts University1.305.6%1st Place
-
11.78University of Vermont0.723.0%1st Place
-
13.76University of Texas0.111.8%1st Place
-
12.23SUNY Maritime College0.632.9%1st Place
-
12.74Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.1%1st Place
-
17.72SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.3%1st Place
-
17.35University of Virginia-0.870.7%1st Place
-
15.47Washington College-0.261.2%1st Place
-
7.59Webb Institute1.737.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Gurnell | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 13.0% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 3.5% |
| Gannon Troutman | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Cole Bender | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 2.4% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 11.7% | 21.1% | 41.0% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 23.6% | 33.0% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 18.5% | 14.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.