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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University1.39+6.72vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.67+5.70vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+2.90vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.72+7.71vs Predicted
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5Catholic University of America1.31+4.03vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.87+3.12vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.42+0.27vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.62+0.03vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.30-0.08vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology0.49+2.59vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.20-1.24vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66-3.98vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.73-5.75vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.60-5.98vs Predicted
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15University of Texas0.11-1.29vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.26-0.68vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.27-3.73vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-0.52-0.45vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia-0.87-1.92vs Predicted
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20Villanova University0.66-7.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.72Jacksonville University1.397.4%1st Place
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7.7Tufts University1.677.6%1st Place
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5.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4612.8%1st Place
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11.71University of Vermont0.722.2%1st Place
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9.03Catholic University of America1.315.8%1st Place
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9.12Princeton University1.875.4%1st Place
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7.27SUNY Maritime College0.428.4%1st Place
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8.03Fordham University1.626.6%1st Place
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8.92Tufts University1.305.0%1st Place
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12.59Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.5%1st Place
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9.76Jacksonville University1.204.5%1st Place
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8.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.667.5%1st Place
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7.25Webb Institute1.738.3%1st Place
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8.02University of Pennsylvania1.606.9%1st Place
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13.71University of Texas0.112.2%1st Place
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15.32Washington College-0.261.0%1st Place
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13.27SUNY Maritime College0.272.1%1st Place
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17.55SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.5%1st Place
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17.08University of Virginia-0.870.8%1st Place
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12.03Villanova University0.662.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Gurnell | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| John McKenna | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Nick Chisari | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Cole Bender | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 4.3% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 19.2% | 11.6% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 3.6% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 19.9% | 41.6% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 21.7% | 32.8% |
| Owen Ward | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.