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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+6.39vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.30+6.87vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+2.61vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.60+4.25vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+3.01vs Predicted
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6Catholic University of America1.31+2.88vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.72+4.74vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.62-0.22vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.39-1.30vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology0.49+2.82vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.87-1.74vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.42-4.80vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.67-5.52vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.20-4.30vs Predicted
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15University of Texas0.11-1.25vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+1.47vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.26-1.47vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.27-4.52vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia-0.87-1.79vs Predicted
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20Villanova University0.66-8.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39Webb Institute1.737.8%1st Place
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8.87Tufts University1.306.0%1st Place
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5.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4612.6%1st Place
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8.25University of Pennsylvania1.606.1%1st Place
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8.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.667.3%1st Place
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8.88Catholic University of America1.316.6%1st Place
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11.74University of Vermont0.722.8%1st Place
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7.78Fordham University1.628.2%1st Place
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7.7Jacksonville University1.397.3%1st Place
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12.82Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.5%1st Place
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9.26Princeton University1.874.3%1st Place
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7.2SUNY Maritime College0.428.7%1st Place
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7.48Tufts University1.678.0%1st Place
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9.7Jacksonville University1.204.3%1st Place
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13.75University of Texas0.111.7%1st Place
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17.47SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.5%1st Place
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15.53Washington College-0.260.7%1st Place
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13.48SUNY Maritime College0.271.7%1st Place
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17.21University of Virginia-0.870.5%1st Place
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11.87Villanova University0.662.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.6% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cole Bender | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nick Chisari | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 4.2% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 22.2% | 39.1% |
| Matthew Collinson | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 18.1% | 13.1% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 3.8% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 21.6% | 33.2% |
| Owen Ward | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.