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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.42+6.38vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.20+7.97vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+2.81vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+3.90vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.30+3.77vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+2.12vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.60+1.09vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.73-0.42vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.67-1.39vs Predicted
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10Villanova University0.66+2.15vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.39-3.05vs Predicted
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12Catholic University of America1.31-2.89vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.87-3.80vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.02+0.68vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+2.87vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-3.31vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.27-3.17vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.26-2.25vs Predicted
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19University of Texas0.11-5.33vs Predicted
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20University of Vermont0.72-8.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38SUNY Maritime College0.427.4%1st Place
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9.97Jacksonville University1.204.5%1st Place
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5.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4612.7%1st Place
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7.9Fordham University1.627.7%1st Place
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8.77Tufts University1.306.3%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.667.2%1st Place
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8.09University of Pennsylvania1.607.0%1st Place
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7.58Webb Institute1.736.9%1st Place
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7.61Tufts University1.677.6%1st Place
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12.15Villanova University0.662.1%1st Place
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7.95Jacksonville University1.396.7%1st Place
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9.11Catholic University of America1.315.5%1st Place
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9.2Princeton University1.875.8%1st Place
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14.68University of Virginia0.021.8%1st Place
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17.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.5%1st Place
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12.69Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.2%1st Place
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13.83SUNY Maritime College0.271.5%1st Place
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15.75Washington College-0.261.1%1st Place
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13.67University of Texas0.112.6%1st Place
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11.86University of Vermont0.722.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chisari | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John Eastman | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 9.7% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 49.5% |
| Cole Bender | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 3.8% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 7.0% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 6.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.