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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+4.83vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.39+5.88vs Predicted
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3Catholic University of America1.31+5.90vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.60+4.31vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+3.15vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.42+1.30vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62+0.87vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.20+2.08vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.30+0.08vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.73-2.52vs Predicted
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11Villanova University0.66+0.95vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.87-2.74vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+4.73vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-1.18vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.27-1.31vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.67-8.35vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.02-2.47vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.26-2.40vs Predicted
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19University of Texas0.11-5.03vs Predicted
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20University of Vermont0.72-8.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4613.7%1st Place
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7.88Jacksonville University1.396.7%1st Place
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8.9Catholic University of America1.315.9%1st Place
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8.31University of Pennsylvania1.606.6%1st Place
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8.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.666.3%1st Place
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7.3SUNY Maritime College0.427.8%1st Place
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7.87Fordham University1.627.4%1st Place
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10.08Jacksonville University1.204.2%1st Place
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9.08Tufts University1.305.5%1st Place
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7.48Webb Institute1.737.5%1st Place
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11.95Villanova University0.663.6%1st Place
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9.26Princeton University1.876.2%1st Place
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17.73SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.4%1st Place
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12.82Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.1%1st Place
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13.69SUNY Maritime College0.271.8%1st Place
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7.65Tufts University1.677.4%1st Place
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14.53University of Virginia0.021.7%1st Place
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15.6Washington College-0.260.9%1st Place
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13.97University of Texas0.111.8%1st Place
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11.9University of Vermont0.722.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 13.7% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 15.6% | 49.3% |
| Cole Bender | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 5.6% |
| John Eastman | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 11.1% |
| Matthew Collinson | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 18.7% | 17.6% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 6.7% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.