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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.42+6.17vs Predicted
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2Villanova University0.66+10.36vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.73+4.61vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+1.92vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.67+2.72vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+2.12vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.39+0.98vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.20+2.04vs Predicted
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9Princeton University1.87+0.15vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology0.49+2.80vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.72+0.70vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.30-3.09vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.62-5.11vs Predicted
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14University of Texas0.11+0.02vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia0.02-0.45vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.26-0.42vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.27-3.25vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-0.52-0.35vs Predicted
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19University of Pennsylvania1.60-11.02vs Predicted
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20Catholic University of America1.31-10.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.17SUNY Maritime College0.429.1%1st Place
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12.36Villanova University0.662.7%1st Place
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7.61Webb Institute1.738.3%1st Place
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5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4611.8%1st Place
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7.72Tufts University1.677.2%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.667.0%1st Place
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7.98Jacksonville University1.396.3%1st Place
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10.04Jacksonville University1.204.7%1st Place
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9.15Princeton University1.875.7%1st Place
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12.8Rochester Institute of Technology0.491.9%1st Place
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11.7University of Vermont0.723.1%1st Place
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8.91Tufts University1.305.5%1st Place
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7.89Fordham University1.627.2%1st Place
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14.02University of Texas0.111.6%1st Place
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14.55University of Virginia0.021.7%1st Place
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15.58Washington College-0.260.9%1st Place
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13.75SUNY Maritime College0.271.5%1st Place
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17.65SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.4%1st Place
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7.98University of Pennsylvania1.607.6%1st Place
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9.12Catholic University of America1.315.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chisari | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 2.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Cole Bender | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 3.6% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 7.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 11.6% |
| Matthew Collinson | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 20.2% | 17.4% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 6.0% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 48.9% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.