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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.42+6.30vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.39+5.57vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+5.07vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.87+5.17vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.73+2.45vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46-0.17vs Predicted
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7University of Texas0.11+7.05vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.72+3.83vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.30+0.01vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.20-0.11vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.62-3.02vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology0.49+0.76vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.67-5.32vs Predicted
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14Villanova University0.66-1.80vs Predicted
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15Washington College-0.26+0.72vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.02-1.39vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+0.73vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.27-4.35vs Predicted
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19University of Pennsylvania1.60-10.62vs Predicted
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20Catholic University of America1.31-10.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.3SUNY Maritime College0.427.5%1st Place
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7.57Jacksonville University1.397.6%1st Place
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8.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.667.0%1st Place
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9.17Princeton University1.875.3%1st Place
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7.45Webb Institute1.738.3%1st Place
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4611.3%1st Place
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14.05University of Texas0.111.4%1st Place
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11.83University of Vermont0.723.1%1st Place
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9.01Tufts University1.306.8%1st Place
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9.89Jacksonville University1.204.5%1st Place
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7.98Fordham University1.626.7%1st Place
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12.76Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.2%1st Place
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7.68Tufts University1.677.8%1st Place
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12.2Villanova University0.662.6%1st Place
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15.72Washington College-0.261.2%1st Place
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14.61University of Virginia0.021.2%1st Place
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17.73SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.5%1st Place
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13.65SUNY Maritime College0.271.6%1st Place
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8.38University of Pennsylvania1.606.2%1st Place
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9.12Catholic University of America1.317.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chisari | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 7.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Cole Bender | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| John Eastman | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 14.7% | 19.7% | 16.9% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 10.2% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 15.2% | 50.3% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John McKenna | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.