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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University1.39+6.89vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+3.78vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.42+4.33vs Predicted
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4Catholic University of America1.31+5.31vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.87+4.04vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.72+5.72vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.60+1.21vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.30+0.97vs Predicted
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9Villanova University0.66+3.17vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.62-2.03vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.73-3.55vs Predicted
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12University of Texas0.11+1.86vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.20-3.03vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+3.72vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.27-1.25vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.02-1.31vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-4.00vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.26-2.61vs Predicted
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19Tufts University1.67-11.25vs Predicted
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20U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66-11.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.89Jacksonville University1.397.4%1st Place
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5.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4611.9%1st Place
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7.33SUNY Maritime College0.428.5%1st Place
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9.31Catholic University of America1.315.0%1st Place
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9.04Princeton University1.875.3%1st Place
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11.72University of Vermont0.723.0%1st Place
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8.21University of Pennsylvania1.606.0%1st Place
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8.97Tufts University1.306.5%1st Place
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12.17Villanova University0.662.6%1st Place
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7.97Fordham University1.626.9%1st Place
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7.45Webb Institute1.738.8%1st Place
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13.86University of Texas0.111.5%1st Place
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9.97Jacksonville University1.204.5%1st Place
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17.72SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.4%1st Place
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13.75SUNY Maritime College0.272.2%1st Place
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14.69University of Virginia0.021.1%1st Place
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13.0Rochester Institute of Technology0.491.8%1st Place
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15.39Washington College-0.261.8%1st Place
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7.75Tufts University1.677.0%1st Place
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8.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.667.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Gurnell | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 11.9% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Owen Ward | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 7.3% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 50.8% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 6.6% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 17.3% | 9.2% |
| Cole Bender | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 3.3% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 16.9% |
| John Eastman | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.