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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Catholic University of America1.31+8.09vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.60+6.30vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+2.92vs Predicted
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4Villanova University0.66+8.06vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.42+2.31vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.73+1.32vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.72+4.87vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.27+5.81vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.39-1.29vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.30-1.10vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.62-2.87vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.20-2.15vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.87-3.63vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.02+0.72vs Predicted
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15University of Texas0.11-1.32vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+1.54vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.26-1.37vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-4.99vs Predicted
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19Tufts University1.67-11.46vs Predicted
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20U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66-11.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.09Catholic University of America1.314.6%1st Place
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8.3University of Pennsylvania1.607.0%1st Place
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5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4612.0%1st Place
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12.06Villanova University0.662.6%1st Place
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7.31SUNY Maritime College0.428.0%1st Place
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7.32Webb Institute1.738.6%1st Place
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11.87University of Vermont0.722.3%1st Place
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13.81SUNY Maritime College0.271.8%1st Place
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7.71Jacksonville University1.398.0%1st Place
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8.9Tufts University1.306.1%1st Place
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8.13Fordham University1.626.9%1st Place
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9.85Jacksonville University1.204.8%1st Place
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9.37Princeton University1.875.2%1st Place
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14.72University of Virginia0.021.3%1st Place
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13.68University of Texas0.112.1%1st Place
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17.54SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.8%1st Place
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15.63Washington College-0.261.1%1st Place
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13.01Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.5%1st Place
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7.54Tufts University1.678.0%1st Place
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8.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.666.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McKenna | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Gavula | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| Nick Chisari | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 6.8% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 11.4% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 7.5% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 48.6% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 20.2% | 17.2% |
| Cole Bender | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 3.1% |
| John Eastman | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.