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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+6.21vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+3.75vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.62+4.91vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.42+3.17vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.39+2.63vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.66+5.84vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.67+0.63vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+0.08vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.60-1.10vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.72+1.76vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.87-2.27vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+0.23vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.20-3.22vs Predicted
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14University of Texas0.11-0.14vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.27-1.48vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+1.64vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.26-1.50vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology0.49-5.33vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia0.02-4.48vs Predicted
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20Tufts University1.30-11.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.21Webb Institute1.738.2%1st Place
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5.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.4612.3%1st Place
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7.91Fordham University1.626.6%1st Place
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7.17SUNY Maritime College0.428.0%1st Place
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7.63Jacksonville University1.398.9%1st Place
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11.84Villanova University0.662.6%1st Place
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7.63Tufts University1.678.2%1st Place
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8.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.667.0%1st Place
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7.9University of Pennsylvania1.606.1%1st Place
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11.76University of Vermont0.723.0%1st Place
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8.73Princeton University1.875.5%1st Place
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12.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.482.8%1st Place
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9.78Jacksonville University1.204.7%1st Place
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13.86University of Texas0.112.1%1st Place
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13.52SUNY Maritime College0.271.7%1st Place
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17.64SUNY Stony Brook-0.520.6%1st Place
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15.5Washington College-0.261.2%1st Place
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12.67Rochester Institute of Technology0.492.6%1st Place
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14.52University of Virginia0.021.8%1st Place
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8.69Tufts University1.306.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nick Chisari | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| John Eastman | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
| Brent Penwarden | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Caroline DuBois-Weber | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 6.6% |
| Robert Mansuetto | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 5.7% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 50.9% |
| Matthew Collinson | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 19.2% | 15.3% |
| Cole Bender | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 10.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.