← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1SUNY Maritime College0.76+9.37vs Predicted
-
2Northwestern University1.49+5.20vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University1.42+4.63vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+3.73vs Predicted
-
5Jacksonville University1.55+2.06vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.64vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College0.41+4.75vs Predicted
-
8Jacksonville University0.84+1.89vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.76vs Predicted
-
10Tufts University1.50-2.53vs Predicted
-
11University of Virginia0.02+2.39vs Predicted
-
12University of Vermont0.87-2.16vs Predicted
-
13University of Pennsylvania1.45-5.46vs Predicted
-
14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+0.42vs Predicted
-
15University of Texas0.41-0.83vs Predicted
-
16Princeton University-0.32-1.82vs Predicted
-
17Villanova University-1.31+0.43vs Predicted
-
18Washington College-1.01-3.74vs Predicted
-
19Webb Institute0.65-8.27vs Predicted
-
20SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-4.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.37SUNY Maritime College0.763.5%1st Place
-
7.2Northwestern University1.497.8%1st Place
-
7.63Fordham University1.426.3%1st Place
-
7.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.417.0%1st Place
-
7.06Jacksonville University1.557.6%1st Place
-
4.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3218.1%1st Place
-
11.75SUNY Maritime College0.412.5%1st Place
-
9.89Jacksonville University0.844.8%1st Place
-
5.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1611.5%1st Place
-
7.47Tufts University1.507.5%1st Place
-
13.39University of Virginia0.021.7%1st Place
-
9.84University of Vermont0.873.8%1st Place
-
7.54University of Pennsylvania1.457.5%1st Place
-
14.42Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.3%1st Place
-
14.17University of Texas0.411.3%1st Place
-
14.18Princeton University-0.321.1%1st Place
-
17.43Villanova University-1.310.4%1st Place
-
14.26Washington College-1.011.9%1st Place
-
10.73Webb Institute0.653.2%1st Place
-
15.35SUNY Stony Brook-0.581.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Vail | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Shea Smith | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew King | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 18.1% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 11.5% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.1% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 7.2% |
| Julia Priebke | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 43.5% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 9.3% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 16.2% | 15.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.