← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.45vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University1.50+5.69vs Predicted
-
3Jacksonville University1.55+3.99vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+3.62vs Predicted
-
5Jacksonville University0.84+4.85vs Predicted
-
6University of Vermont0.87+3.81vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.93vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College0.76+2.27vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania1.45-1.41vs Predicted
-
10Northwestern University1.49-2.76vs Predicted
-
11Princeton University-0.32+3.38vs Predicted
-
12University of Virginia0.02+1.21vs Predicted
-
13Webb Institute0.65-2.28vs Predicted
-
14Fordham University1.42-6.34vs Predicted
-
15University of Texas0.41-0.66vs Predicted
-
16SUNY Maritime College0.41-4.31vs Predicted
-
17Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-2.51vs Predicted
-
18Washington College-1.01-3.68vs Predicted
-
19Villanova University-1.31-1.63vs Predicted
-
20SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-4.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3216.8%1st Place
-
7.69Tufts University1.507.0%1st Place
-
6.99Jacksonville University1.557.6%1st Place
-
7.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.417.2%1st Place
-
9.85Jacksonville University0.844.2%1st Place
-
9.81University of Vermont0.873.8%1st Place
-
5.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1615.6%1st Place
-
10.27SUNY Maritime College0.763.9%1st Place
-
7.59University of Pennsylvania1.457.4%1st Place
-
7.24Northwestern University1.497.5%1st Place
-
14.38Princeton University-0.321.1%1st Place
-
13.21University of Virginia0.021.9%1st Place
-
10.72Webb Institute0.652.6%1st Place
-
7.66Fordham University1.426.5%1st Place
-
14.34University of Texas0.411.2%1st Place
-
11.69SUNY Maritime College0.412.4%1st Place
-
14.49Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.5%1st Place
-
14.32Washington College-1.010.9%1st Place
-
17.37Villanova University-1.310.2%1st Place
-
15.24SUNY Stony Brook-0.580.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.8% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew King | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 15.6% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Vail | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 8.7% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.7% |
| Evan Spalding | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 7.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 8.6% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 9.1% |
| Julia Priebke | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 43.8% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 15.3% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.