← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.06vs Predicted
-
2Jacksonville University1.55+5.07vs Predicted
-
3Jacksonville University0.84+7.04vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania1.45+3.41vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+2.68vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.68vs Predicted
-
7Northwestern University1.49+0.15vs Predicted
-
8Tufts University1.50-0.19vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University1.42-1.38vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont0.87-0.07vs Predicted
-
11Princeton University-0.32+3.18vs Predicted
-
12University of Virginia0.02+1.26vs Predicted
-
13University of Texas0.41+1.28vs Predicted
-
14Webb Institute0.65-2.97vs Predicted
-
15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-0.52vs Predicted
-
16Washington College-1.01-1.99vs Predicted
-
17SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-1.67vs Predicted
-
18Villanova University-1.31-0.76vs Predicted
-
19SUNY Maritime College0.41-7.17vs Predicted
-
20SUNY Maritime College0.76-9.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1615.4%1st Place
-
7.07Jacksonville University1.558.1%1st Place
-
10.04Jacksonville University0.843.4%1st Place
-
7.41University of Pennsylvania1.457.0%1st Place
-
7.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.416.1%1st Place
-
4.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3219.5%1st Place
-
7.15Northwestern University1.496.7%1st Place
-
7.81Tufts University1.506.8%1st Place
-
7.62Fordham University1.426.5%1st Place
-
9.93University of Vermont0.872.9%1st Place
-
14.18Princeton University-0.321.7%1st Place
-
13.26University of Virginia0.021.5%1st Place
-
14.28University of Texas0.410.8%1st Place
-
11.03Webb Institute0.652.7%1st Place
-
14.48Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.8%1st Place
-
14.01Washington College-1.011.8%1st Place
-
15.33SUNY Stony Brook-0.581.2%1st Place
-
17.24Villanova University-1.310.4%1st Place
-
11.83SUNY Maritime College0.412.5%1st Place
-
10.27SUNY Maritime College0.763.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 15.4% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 19.5% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Sheridan | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 4.8% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 8.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 11.2% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 7.8% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 16.5% | 13.2% |
| Julia Priebke | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 17.4% | 43.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| John Vail | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.