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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.27vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.50+5.57vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.44vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University0.84+5.98vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.49+2.27vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.55+1.08vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+0.74vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.87+1.84vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.42-1.36vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute0.65+0.65vs Predicted
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11University of Texas0.41+3.23vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.32+2.28vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.01+1.10vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.02-0.74vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-0.44vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-0.76vs Predicted
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17Villanova University-1.31+0.27vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.41-6.09vs Predicted
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19University of Pennsylvania1.45-11.67vs Predicted
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20SUNY Maritime College0.76-9.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1612.8%1st Place
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7.57Tufts University1.506.8%1st Place
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4.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3217.8%1st Place
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9.98Jacksonville University0.844.2%1st Place
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7.27Northwestern University1.496.9%1st Place
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7.08Jacksonville University1.557.5%1st Place
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7.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.416.9%1st Place
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9.84University of Vermont0.874.1%1st Place
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7.64Fordham University1.427.0%1st Place
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10.65Webb Institute0.653.8%1st Place
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14.23University of Texas0.411.3%1st Place
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14.28Princeton University-0.321.4%1st Place
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14.1Washington College-1.011.3%1st Place
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13.26University of Virginia0.021.5%1st Place
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14.56Rochester Institute of Technology-0.640.8%1st Place
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15.24SUNY Stony Brook-0.580.9%1st Place
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17.27Villanova University-1.310.5%1st Place
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11.91SUNY Maritime College0.412.7%1st Place
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7.33University of Pennsylvania1.458.6%1st Place
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10.36SUNY Maritime College0.763.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 12.8% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.8% | 15.5% | 13.9% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Shea Smith | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew King | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 8.8% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 7.2% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 4.7% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 9.2% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 14.9% |
| Julia Priebke | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 42.5% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John Vail | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.