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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.76+9.26vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.27vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.55+4.08vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+0.50vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.87+4.95vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.45+1.55vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+0.67vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.42-0.45vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.50-1.06vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University0.84+0.17vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.49-3.63vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.34+3.09vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.41-1.02vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute0.65-3.05vs Predicted
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15Villanova University-0.11-1.03vs Predicted
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16University of Texas0.19-2.44vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.40-1.88vs Predicted
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18Washington College-1.01-3.46vs Predicted
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19Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-4.14vs Predicted
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20Princeton University-0.32-5.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.26SUNY Maritime College0.763.4%1st Place
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5.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.8%1st Place
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7.08Jacksonville University1.557.7%1st Place
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4.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3218.4%1st Place
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9.95University of Vermont0.873.9%1st Place
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7.55University of Pennsylvania1.456.9%1st Place
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7.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.416.9%1st Place
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7.55Fordham University1.427.2%1st Place
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7.94Tufts University1.507.5%1st Place
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10.17Jacksonville University0.843.5%1st Place
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7.37Northwestern University1.497.6%1st Place
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15.09University of Virginia-0.341.2%1st Place
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11.98SUNY Maritime College0.412.5%1st Place
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10.95Webb Institute0.653.0%1st Place
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13.97Villanova University-0.111.2%1st Place
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13.56University of Texas0.191.1%1st Place
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15.12SUNY Stony Brook-0.401.1%1st Place
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14.54Washington College-1.010.9%1st Place
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14.86Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.1%1st Place
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14.64Princeton University-0.321.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Vail | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Will Murray | 13.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 18.4% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Shea Smith | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 15.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Jack Murray | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 17.4% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 13.5% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 15.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.