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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.37vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.55+5.08vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.50+4.72vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.26vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.87+4.88vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+1.96vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.45+0.59vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University0.84+2.10vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.76+1.54vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49-2.46vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.42-3.17vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute0.65-1.05vs Predicted
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13University of Texas0.19+0.39vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.01+0.45vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.41-2.95vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.34-1.23vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.40-1.83vs Predicted
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18Villanova University-0.11-4.15vs Predicted
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19Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-4.20vs Predicted
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20Princeton University-0.32-5.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3218.3%1st Place
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7.08Jacksonville University1.558.2%1st Place
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7.72Tufts University1.505.1%1st Place
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5.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1614.0%1st Place
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9.88University of Vermont0.874.5%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.415.9%1st Place
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7.59University of Pennsylvania1.457.6%1st Place
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10.1Jacksonville University0.844.3%1st Place
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10.54SUNY Maritime College0.763.4%1st Place
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7.54Northwestern University1.497.4%1st Place
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7.83Fordham University1.426.5%1st Place
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10.95Webb Institute0.652.9%1st Place
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13.39University of Texas0.191.8%1st Place
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14.45Washington College-1.012.0%1st Place
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12.05SUNY Maritime College0.412.5%1st Place
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14.77University of Virginia-0.341.2%1st Place
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15.17SUNY Stony Brook-0.400.9%1st Place
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13.85Villanova University-0.111.4%1st Place
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14.8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.5%1st Place
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14.71Princeton University-0.320.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 18.3% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 14.0% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| William Weinbecker | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| John Vail | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Shea Smith | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 6.4% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 13.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 15.7% |
| Kristin Hess | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 18.7% |
| Jack Murray | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 15.2% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 14.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.