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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.21vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+6.11vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.43+4.88vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+0.63vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.42+2.83vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.50+1.92vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.76+3.68vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.45-0.14vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49-1.49vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.87+0.07vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.41+1.24vs Predicted
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12University of Texas0.19+1.46vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32+1.64vs Predicted
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14Villanova University-0.11+0.16vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.34-0.18vs Predicted
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16Washington College-1.01-1.35vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-1.30vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-3.07vs Predicted
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19Jacksonville University0.84-8.63vs Predicted
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20Jacksonville University1.55-12.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1612.5%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.415.8%1st Place
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7.88Webb Institute1.437.1%1st Place
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4.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3217.5%1st Place
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7.83Fordham University1.427.0%1st Place
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7.92Tufts University1.505.5%1st Place
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10.68SUNY Maritime College0.763.0%1st Place
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7.86University of Pennsylvania1.455.9%1st Place
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7.51Northwestern University1.497.2%1st Place
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10.07University of Vermont0.873.8%1st Place
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12.24SUNY Maritime College0.412.5%1st Place
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13.46University of Texas0.191.9%1st Place
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14.64Princeton University-0.321.5%1st Place
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14.16Villanova University-0.111.8%1st Place
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14.82University of Virginia-0.341.5%1st Place
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14.65Washington College-1.011.1%1st Place
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15.7SUNY Stony Brook-0.581.0%1st Place
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14.93Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.4%1st Place
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10.37Jacksonville University0.844.0%1st Place
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7.33Jacksonville University1.557.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 12.5% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.5% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Connor Sheridan | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John Vail | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.9% |
| Jack Murray | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 9.8% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 14.8% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 13.6% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 22.4% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 15.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Matthew King | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.