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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.40vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College0.76+8.64vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.43+4.61vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+0.57vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.87+5.31vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.45+1.75vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.50+1.04vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-0.04vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.42-1.25vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.32+4.74vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.49-3.47vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.41+0.04vs Predicted
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13University of Texas0.19+0.71vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+0.97vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.34+0.06vs Predicted
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16Washington College-1.01-1.44vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-1.40vs Predicted
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18Villanova University-0.11-3.99vs Predicted
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19Jacksonville University0.84-8.73vs Predicted
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20Jacksonville University1.55-12.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1611.7%1st Place
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10.64SUNY Maritime College0.762.8%1st Place
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7.61Webb Institute1.438.2%1st Place
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4.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3216.8%1st Place
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10.31University of Vermont0.873.0%1st Place
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7.75University of Pennsylvania1.457.6%1st Place
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8.04Tufts University1.506.3%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.416.6%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University1.428.1%1st Place
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14.74Princeton University-0.321.6%1st Place
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7.53Northwestern University1.497.2%1st Place
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12.04SUNY Maritime College0.412.3%1st Place
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13.71University of Texas0.191.7%1st Place
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14.97Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.0%1st Place
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15.06University of Virginia-0.340.9%1st Place
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14.56Washington College-1.011.6%1st Place
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15.6SUNY Stony Brook-0.580.6%1st Place
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14.01Villanova University-0.111.8%1st Place
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10.27Jacksonville University0.842.9%1st Place
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7.5Jacksonville University1.557.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 11.7% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Vail | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.8% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Sheridan | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 14.6% |
| Shea Smith | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 14.9% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 16.1% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 12.2% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 20.4% |
| Jack Murray | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Matthew King | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.