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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University1.55+6.15vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.50+5.76vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.52vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.76+6.46vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.49+2.29vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University0.84+3.85vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.45+0.60vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.87+1.83vs Predicted
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9Villanova University-0.11+5.00vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.44vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.32+3.79vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+2.67vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.40+1.92vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.42-6.23vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute0.65-4.11vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.34-1.21vs Predicted
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17University of Texas0.41-2.37vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.41-6.16vs Predicted
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19Washington College-1.01-4.57vs Predicted
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20Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-14.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15Jacksonville University1.557.5%1st Place
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7.76Tufts University1.507.0%1st Place
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4.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3218.6%1st Place
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10.46SUNY Maritime College0.763.2%1st Place
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7.29Northwestern University1.496.7%1st Place
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9.85Jacksonville University0.844.3%1st Place
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7.6University of Pennsylvania1.457.0%1st Place
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9.83University of Vermont0.874.3%1st Place
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14.0Villanova University-0.111.7%1st Place
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7.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.416.9%1st Place
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14.79Princeton University-0.320.7%1st Place
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14.67Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.2%1st Place
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14.92SUNY Stony Brook-0.401.1%1st Place
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7.77Fordham University1.426.6%1st Place
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10.89Webb Institute0.653.8%1st Place
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14.79University of Virginia-0.340.9%1st Place
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14.63University of Texas0.410.9%1st Place
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11.84SUNY Maritime College0.412.8%1st Place
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14.43Washington College-1.011.2%1st Place
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5.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew King | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Sheridan | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 18.6% | 15.5% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Vail | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Shea Smith | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack Murray | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 13.5% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 14.5% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 17.2% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 15.9% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 12.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Will Murray | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.