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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.50+6.69vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+5.61vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.55+4.06vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.87+5.96vs Predicted
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5Princeton University-0.32+9.45vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute0.65+4.95vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.55vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.45-0.39vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49-1.66vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.42-2.29vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.41+1.04vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.84-1.84vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.60vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.40+0.92vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.34-0.10vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64-1.26vs Predicted
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17University of Texas0.41-2.48vs Predicted
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18Villanova University-0.11-4.17vs Predicted
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19Washington College-1.01-4.53vs Predicted
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20Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-14.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.69Tufts University1.507.2%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.417.3%1st Place
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7.06Jacksonville University1.557.0%1st Place
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9.96University of Vermont0.874.2%1st Place
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14.45Princeton University-0.321.3%1st Place
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10.95Webb Institute0.653.4%1st Place
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4.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3218.1%1st Place
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7.61University of Pennsylvania1.456.5%1st Place
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7.34Northwestern University1.497.8%1st Place
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7.71Fordham University1.427.0%1st Place
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12.04SUNY Maritime College0.412.5%1st Place
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10.16Jacksonville University0.843.9%1st Place
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10.4SUNY Maritime College0.763.4%1st Place
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14.92SUNY Stony Brook-0.400.9%1st Place
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14.9University of Virginia-0.341.3%1st Place
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14.74Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.4%1st Place
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14.52University of Texas0.411.3%1st Place
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13.83Villanova University-0.111.1%1st Place
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14.47Washington College-1.011.0%1st Place
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5.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sheridan | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Matthew King | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 14.1% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 18.1% | 15.5% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| John Vail | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Kristin Hess | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 17.0% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 14.9% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 14.5% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| Jack Murray | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.0% |
| Will Murray | 13.7% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.