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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.50+6.97vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.55+5.41vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.69vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.43vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+2.88vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.45+1.63vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.87+3.27vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.64+6.72vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.41+3.14vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49-2.52vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.84-0.69vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.76-1.32vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia0.06+0.30vs Predicted
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14University of Texas0.41+0.36vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.32-0.61vs Predicted
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16Villanova University-1.31+1.47vs Predicted
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17Washington College-1.01-2.49vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-2.53vs Predicted
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19Webb Institute1.66-12.95vs Predicted
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20Fordham University1.42-12.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.97Tufts University1.506.5%1st Place
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7.41Jacksonville University1.557.2%1st Place
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4.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3216.8%1st Place
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5.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.5%1st Place
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7.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.416.0%1st Place
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7.63University of Pennsylvania1.456.9%1st Place
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10.27University of Vermont0.873.1%1st Place
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14.72Rochester Institute of Technology-0.641.6%1st Place
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12.14SUNY Maritime College0.412.0%1st Place
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7.48Northwestern University1.496.9%1st Place
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10.31Jacksonville University0.843.8%1st Place
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10.68SUNY Maritime College0.762.7%1st Place
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13.3University of Virginia0.061.8%1st Place
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14.36University of Texas0.411.5%1st Place
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14.39Princeton University-0.321.0%1st Place
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17.47Villanova University-1.310.3%1st Place
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14.51Washington College-1.011.2%1st Place
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15.47SUNY Stony Brook-0.581.0%1st Place
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6.05Webb Institute1.6610.1%1st Place
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7.85Fordham University1.426.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sheridan | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.8% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 13.5% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 10.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Shea Smith | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| John Vail | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Emma Sullivan | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 4.1% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 7.4% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% |
| Julia Priebke | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 15.8% | 43.8% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 8.1% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| Jensen McTighe | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.