Race 1A

fall-fury

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Lorenzo Puertas 23.4% 19.1% 15.7% 13.2% 10.0% 7.1% 5.1% 3.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Chesemore 6.0% 6.8% 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% 9.2% 9.3% 10.8% 10.9% 10.5% 9.3% 2.8% 0.6%
Quinn Kaiser 11.3% 11.7% 12.9% 12.9% 9.8% 8.8% 10.6% 7.7% 6.7% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Scott Mather 12.7% 12.9% 12.2% 10.5% 11.5% 10.5% 8.8% 8.7% 5.5% 4.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Andrew Wiand 11.2% 10.7% 9.8% 11.7% 10.9% 10.0% 9.0% 8.2% 9.3% 5.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Wyatt Tait 5.7% 6.3% 8.2% 7.3% 9.0% 8.9% 11.5% 11.5% 11.3% 8.9% 7.6% 2.9% 0.8%
Nigel Yu 4.5% 5.5% 7.1% 6.7% 7.8% 7.5% 9.3% 9.6% 11.4% 13.2% 10.3% 5.9% 1.1%
Brian Zettlemoyer 3.8% 4.5% 5.1% 4.8% 5.7% 7.1% 7.8% 9.6% 10.8% 13.2% 15.8% 9.3% 2.5%
Lucas Nykamp 9.8% 10.2% 9.0% 10.2% 10.5% 11.3% 10.2% 8.8% 8.3% 6.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 7.0% 8.2% 7.4% 9.6% 9.4% 10.9% 9.9% 10.3% 8.8% 9.2% 6.2% 2.3% 0.6%
Nathaniel Bacheller 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 2.1% 1.9% 4.5% 8.5% 24.3% 52.2%
Hayden Johansen 2.6% 2.6% 3.4% 3.2% 4.4% 5.1% 5.5% 6.0% 9.2% 12.7% 20.1% 17.9% 7.2%
Patrick Gardiner 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 3.0% 3.9% 5.9% 11.6% 31.4% 34.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.