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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.18+3.78vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.37+5.53vs Predicted
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3Yale University1.25+5.59vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.22+0.55vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.38+6.10vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.43+4.85vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.27+4.36vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University0.65+3.48vs Predicted
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9Maine Maritime Academy-0.21+4.20vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.83-0.93vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University0.97-2.18vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.31-4.43vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.24-5.17vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.86-8.41vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.54-7.40vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-7.27vs Predicted
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17Middlebury College-0.84-2.01vs Predicted
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18Wentworth Institute of Technology-2.54-0.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78Yale University2.1814.2%1st Place
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7.53Connecticut College1.376.0%1st Place
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8.59Yale University1.255.5%1st Place
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4.55Brown University2.2217.8%1st Place
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11.1Connecticut College0.382.4%1st Place
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10.85Connecticut College0.432.0%1st Place
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11.36Connecticut College0.272.8%1st Place
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11.48Northeastern University0.651.7%1st Place
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13.2Maine Maritime Academy-0.211.6%1st Place
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9.07Tufts University0.834.7%1st Place
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8.82Salve Regina University0.974.8%1st Place
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7.57Salve Regina University1.317.3%1st Place
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7.83Roger Williams University1.245.7%1st Place
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5.59Brown University1.8611.7%1st Place
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7.6University of Rhode Island1.546.6%1st Place
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8.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.7%1st Place
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14.99Middlebury College-0.840.6%1st Place
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17.35Wentworth Institute of Technology-2.540.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Farina | 14.2% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bedford | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 17.8% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 0.8% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 1.1% |
| Carter Brock | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 1.4% |
| Sean Caulfield | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 18.1% | 18.8% | 4.3% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Nils Tullberg | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 11.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Moffitt | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucie Rochat | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 37.8% | 12.9% |
| Ryan Cloherty | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 10.3% | 78.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.