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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.37+6.70vs Predicted
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2Tufts University0.83+7.30vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.18+1.69vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University1.31+3.54vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.54+2.54vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.24+1.77vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.22-2.27vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.25+0.67vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.60+1.10vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University0.97-1.14vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.38-0.06vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.27-0.67vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-4.05vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.65-2.38vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy-0.21-1.73vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.84-1.06vs Predicted
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17Brown University1.86-11.27vs Predicted
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18Wentworth Institute of Technology-2.54-0.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.7Connecticut College1.376.5%1st Place
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9.3Tufts University0.834.3%1st Place
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4.69Yale University2.1816.4%1st Place
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7.54Salve Regina University1.316.7%1st Place
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7.54University of Rhode Island1.547.0%1st Place
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7.77Roger Williams University1.246.2%1st Place
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4.73Brown University2.2214.3%1st Place
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8.67Yale University1.255.5%1st Place
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10.1Connecticut College0.604.2%1st Place
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8.86Salve Regina University0.975.1%1st Place
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10.94Connecticut College0.382.7%1st Place
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11.33Connecticut College0.272.5%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.9%1st Place
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11.62Northeastern University0.652.1%1st Place
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13.27Maine Maritime Academy-0.211.1%1st Place
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14.94Middlebury College-0.840.7%1st Place
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5.73Brown University1.8610.8%1st Place
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17.32Wentworth Institute of Technology-2.540.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Bedford | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Farina | 16.4% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nils Tullberg | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christian Moffitt | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| William Bailey | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 14.3% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 1.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 1.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Carter Brock | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 1.6% |
| Sean Caulfield | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 18.8% | 18.6% | 3.9% |
| Lucie Rochat | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 37.1% | 13.4% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Cloherty | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 11.1% | 77.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.