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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University0.83+8.24vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.54+5.67vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College0.60+7.39vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.24+3.85vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.18-0.30vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22-1.37vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.37+0.52vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+0.60vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.38+1.97vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.86-4.19vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy-0.21+2.06vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.31-4.54vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.65-1.24vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.25-5.28vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University0.97-6.19vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.84-0.93vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.27-5.52vs Predicted
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18Wentworth Institute of Technology-2.54-0.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.24Tufts University0.834.0%1st Place
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7.67University of Rhode Island1.546.1%1st Place
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10.39Connecticut College0.603.6%1st Place
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7.85Roger Williams University1.246.7%1st Place
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4.7Yale University2.1815.9%1st Place
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4.63Brown University2.2215.6%1st Place
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7.52Connecticut College1.376.2%1st Place
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8.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.085.1%1st Place
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10.97Connecticut College0.382.8%1st Place
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5.81Brown University1.8610.7%1st Place
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13.06Maine Maritime Academy-0.212.0%1st Place
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7.46Salve Regina University1.317.2%1st Place
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11.76Northeastern University0.652.2%1st Place
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8.72Yale University1.254.4%1st Place
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8.81Salve Regina University0.974.8%1st Place
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15.07Middlebury College-0.840.4%1st Place
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11.48Connecticut College0.272.1%1st Place
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17.29Wentworth Institute of Technology-2.540.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Talbot | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Christian Moffitt | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| William Bailey | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Farina | 15.9% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 15.6% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bedford | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Caulfield | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 18.2% | 18.6% | 3.8% |
| Nils Tullberg | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carter Brock | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 8.3% | 1.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucie Rochat | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 39.0% | 13.2% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| Ryan Cloherty | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 9.3% | 78.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.