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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.55+5.51vs Predicted
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2Stanford University4.19+2.56vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.74+2.93vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.49+2.83vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.51+1.86vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin3.19+1.85vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.73-1.00vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University2.54+1.92vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-2.79vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.73-3.86vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia2.39-0.61vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University at Galveston1.39+1.05vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-4.20vs Predicted
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14Oregon State University1.47-1.35vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan3.02-8.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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4.56Stanford University4.190.2%1st Place
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5.93U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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6.83Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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6.86Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.85University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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6.0College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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9.92Jacksonville University2.540.0%1st Place
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6.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.14Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.39University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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13.05Texas A&M University at Galveston1.390.0%1st Place
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8.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.0%1st Place
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12.65Oregon State University1.470.0%1st Place
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8.31University of Michigan3.020.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IG Schottlaender | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Kieran Chung | 15.7% | 16.8% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Scott Houck | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Alex Post | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Michael Lee | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Davidson | 11.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Ian Ikeda | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 12.3% | 6.6% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 9.0% |
| Jacob Hafemeister | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 11.8% | 21.7% | 42.2% |
| Stephen Long | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 2.5% |
| Cody Odou | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 23.0% | 35.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.