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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.08+3.93vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.69+4.24vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.52+3.86vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.24+3.93vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii3.04+3.43vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College3.14+2.42vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-1.78vs Predicted
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8Clemson University1.88+4.21vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.52-1.93vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.84-0.81vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-2.31vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.97-3.22vs Predicted
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13University of Minnesota1.95-0.68vs Predicted
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14University of Notre Dame1.12+0.46vs Predicted
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15University of Washington2.10-3.23vs Predicted
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16Tulane University0.77-0.87vs Predicted
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17Clemson University1.88-4.79vs Predicted
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18Boston College4.01-12.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.93Yale University4.080.2%1st Place
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6.24Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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6.86Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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7.93University of South Florida3.240.1%1st Place
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8.43University of Hawaii3.040.0%1st Place
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8.42Eckerd College3.140.1%1st Place
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5.22St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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12.21Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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7.07Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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9.19Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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8.69Harvard University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.78Old Dominion University2.970.0%1st Place
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12.32University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
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14.46University of Notre Dame1.120.0%1st Place
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11.77University of Washington2.100.0%1st Place
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15.13Tulane University0.770.0%1st Place
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12.21Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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5.38Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 15.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fernando Monllor | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Melany Johnson | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.1% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrea Luna | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Grosch | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| John Schneider | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 25.0% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Lily Grimshaw | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Swanson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 20.7% | 44.9% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.