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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.52+5.31vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.08+2.76vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+1.86vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.69+2.06vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.97+3.31vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.52+0.50vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii3.04+1.10vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College3.14-0.44vs Predicted
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9Boston College4.01-4.05vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.84-1.24vs Predicted
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11University of Minnesota1.95+0.42vs Predicted
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12Tulane University0.77+2.16vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.05-5.07vs Predicted
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14Clemson University1.88-2.42vs Predicted
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15University of Washington2.10-3.87vs Predicted
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16Clemson University1.88-4.42vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame1.12-3.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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4.76Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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4.86St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.2%1st Place
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6.06Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.31Old Dominion University2.970.0%1st Place
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6.5Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.1University of Hawaii3.040.1%1st Place
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7.56Eckerd College3.140.1%1st Place
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4.95Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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8.76Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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11.42University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
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14.16Tulane University0.770.0%1st Place
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7.93Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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11.58Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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11.13University of Washington2.100.0%1st Place
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11.58Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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13.59University of Notre Dame1.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Croteau | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Barrows | 15.0% | 14.9% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 15.2% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrea Luna | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Melany Johnson | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 14.3% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Grosch | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 17.3% | 13.7% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Swanson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 19.1% | 46.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Lily Grimshaw | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| John Schneider | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 13.4% | 27.4% | 28.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.