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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.08+3.68vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+2.89vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.69+2.94vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+4.13vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii3.04+3.07vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.01-0.96vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College3.52-0.46vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.97+0.09vs Predicted
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9Clemson University1.88+2.61vs Predicted
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10University of Minnesota1.95+1.47vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.84-2.32vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.52-5.61vs Predicted
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13Tulane University0.77+1.19vs Predicted
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14Clemson University1.88-2.39vs Predicted
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15University of Notre Dame1.12-1.55vs Predicted
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16University of Washington2.10-4.89vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College3.14-9.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68Yale University4.080.2%1st Place
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4.89St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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5.94Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.13Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.07University of Hawaii3.040.0%1st Place
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5.04Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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6.54Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.09Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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11.61Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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11.47University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
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8.68Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.39Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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14.19Tulane University0.770.0%1st Place
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11.61Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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13.45University of Notre Dame1.120.0%1st Place
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11.11University of Washington2.100.0%1st Place
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7.74Eckerd College3.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 15.6% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 14.3% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.8% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrea Luna | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Grosch | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 16.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Swanson | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 11.5% | 19.8% | 45.5% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| John Schneider | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 24.3% | 29.3% | 0.0% |
| Lily Grimshaw | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Melany Johnson | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.