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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+3.73vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.04+5.90vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.97+5.10vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.08+0.80vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.52+1.38vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.01-1.01vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.52-0.55vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05-0.24vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.84-0.50vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.69-4.10vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.80-2.27vs Predicted
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12University of Minnesota1.95-0.64vs Predicted
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13Clemson University1.88-1.43vs Predicted
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14Tulane University0.89-0.19vs Predicted
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15Clemson University1.88-3.43vs Predicted
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16University of Washington2.10-5.00vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame0.86-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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7.9University of Hawaii3.040.1%1st Place
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8.1Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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4.8Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.38Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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4.99Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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6.45Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.76Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.5Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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5.9Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.73Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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11.36University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
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11.57Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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13.81Tulane University0.890.0%1st Place
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11.57Clemson University1.880.0%1st Place
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11.0University of Washington2.100.0%1st Place
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14.03University of Notre Dame0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 14.9% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrea Luna | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Barrows | 14.3% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Croteau | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.3% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 9.8% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Grosch | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Oswalt | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 23.8% | 35.4% | 0.0% |
| John Roberts | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Lily Grimshaw | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 16.3% | 11.4% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Koerwer | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 13.2% | 23.1% | 39.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.