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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+8.29vs Predicted
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2Stanford University4.19+6.17vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.55+3.68vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.49+6.85vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+4.48vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.64+4.43vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University4.36+0.24vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.18+4.15vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College4.05-0.50vs Predicted
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10Boston College4.12-1.52vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin3.36+0.69vs Predicted
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12Tufts University4.08-3.20vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.78-3.49vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.65-4.01vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii3.68-4.88vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.49-4.89vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.67-6.66vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-9.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.29St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.17Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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6.68Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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10.85University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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9.48Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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10.43Brown University3.640.0%1st Place
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7.24Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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12.15Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.5Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.48Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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11.69University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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8.8Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.51Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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9.99College of Charleston3.650.0%1st Place
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10.12University of Hawaii3.680.0%1st Place
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11.11Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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8.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Greenslade | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Kieran Chung | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Graham Landy | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stocke | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% |
| Esteban Forrer | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% |
| Lucas Adams | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% |
| Nevin Snow | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Jack McGuire | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 17.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| Raul Rios | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 13.6% |
| William Haeger | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Kevin Martland | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Jake Reynolds | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% |
| Adam Pokras | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% |
| Brian Drumm | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
| Michael Grove | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.7% |
| Avery Fanning | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.