← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.48vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University2.61+3.63vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.74vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University2.77+0.99vs Predicted
-
5Columbia University1.65+3.28vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania2.87-1.17vs Predicted
-
7Webb Institute2.29-0.63vs Predicted
-
8University of Rochester0.94+2.49vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.67vs Predicted
-
10Ocean County College0.79+1.22vs Predicted
-
11Villanova University1.59-2.39vs Predicted
-
12Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-2.63vs Predicted
-
13University of Buffalo-0.24+0.98vs Predicted
-
14Syracuse University-0.22-0.15vs Predicted
-
15University of Toronto0.29-2.42vs Predicted
-
16Queen's University-0.25-1.81vs Predicted
-
17Drexel University-0.33-2.55vs Predicted
-
18Penn State University-0.78-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
-
5.63Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
-
4.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
-
4.99Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
-
8.28Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
-
4.83University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
-
6.37Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
-
10.49University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
-
9.67U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
-
11.22Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
-
8.61Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
-
9.37Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
-
13.98University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
-
13.85Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
-
12.58University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
-
14.19Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
-
14.45Drexel University-0.330.0%1st Place
-
15.26Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 36.5% | 25.1% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 6.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 10.3% | 11.6% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.5% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 10.5% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Domenic Re | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| James Mullane | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 12.3% |
| Oguz Aras | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 4.8% |
| Austin Stein | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| Robert Stricek | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 17.9% | 31.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.