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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+1.87vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.26+4.76vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.78+2.42vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.59+2.12vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.82+0.32vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.67-0.31vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University0.97+0.91vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-0.41vs Predicted
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9Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.36+5.41vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49-3.92vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.27-1.06vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.40-0.06vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont-0.13-1.92vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-0.78-1.04vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09-3.70vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.79-2.89vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.42-2.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.87University of Rhode Island2.7831.7%1st Place
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6.76University of Rhode Island1.266.5%1st Place
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5.42Brown University1.7810.0%1st Place
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6.12Northeastern University1.597.6%1st Place
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5.32Brown University1.828.9%1st Place
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5.69Tufts University1.678.6%1st Place
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7.91Salve Regina University0.974.2%1st Place
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7.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.9%1st Place
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14.41Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.360.3%1st Place
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6.08Northwestern University1.498.6%1st Place
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9.94Connecticut College0.271.9%1st Place
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11.94Bates College-0.401.5%1st Place
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11.08University of Vermont-0.131.4%1st Place
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12.96University of New Hampshire-0.780.8%1st Place
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11.3Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.092.1%1st Place
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13.11Middlebury College-0.790.9%1st Place
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14.49Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.420.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 31.7% | 20.8% | 17.9% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 10.0% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 21.0% | 29.9% |
| Shea Smith | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Frary | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 5.3% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.7% |
| Anne Berg | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 11.2% |
| John Van Zanten | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 2.5% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 13.3% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 19.1% | 33.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.