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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+2.03vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.27+8.03vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.78+2.49vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.26+2.62vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.59+0.94vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.67-0.36vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.82-1.75vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49-1.83vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University0.97-1.20vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-2.36vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont-0.13+0.29vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.40+0.06vs Predicted
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13Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.36+1.41vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-0.78-0.94vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09-4.11vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.79-2.84vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.42-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.03University of Rhode Island2.7829.4%1st Place
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10.03Connecticut College0.272.4%1st Place
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5.49Brown University1.789.3%1st Place
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6.62University of Rhode Island1.267.3%1st Place
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5.94Northeastern University1.598.6%1st Place
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5.64Tufts University1.679.0%1st Place
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5.25Brown University1.8210.5%1st Place
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6.17Northwestern University1.497.8%1st Place
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7.8Salve Regina University0.974.9%1st Place
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7.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.0%1st Place
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11.29University of Vermont-0.131.4%1st Place
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12.06Bates College-0.401.1%1st Place
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14.41Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.360.7%1st Place
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13.06University of New Hampshire-0.780.5%1st Place
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10.89Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.091.9%1st Place
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13.16Middlebury College-0.790.7%1st Place
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14.52Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.420.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 29.4% | 23.1% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 2.5% |
| Cameron Frary | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 5.1% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 20.2% | 31.0% |
| Anne Berg | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 17.0% | 11.7% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 16.1% | 15.4% | 13.3% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 19.4% | 32.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.