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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.46vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.61+3.67vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.70vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.87+0.75vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.77+0.05vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College0.79+5.09vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.94+3.59vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute2.29-1.70vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.59-0.53vs Predicted
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10Drexel University-0.33+4.47vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.65-2.61vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-2.66vs Predicted
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13University of Toronto0.29-0.46vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo-0.24-0.09vs Predicted
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15Queen's University-0.25-0.89vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy1.22-6.24vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-0.22-2.86vs Predicted
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18Penn State University-0.78-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
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5.67Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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4.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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4.75University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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5.05Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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11.09Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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10.59University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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6.3Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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8.47Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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14.47Drexel University-0.330.0%1st Place
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8.39Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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9.34Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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12.54University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
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13.91University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
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14.11Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
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9.76U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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14.14Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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15.24Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 36.7% | 24.7% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 10.8% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 11.9% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.8% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Cody Stansky | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Robert Stricek | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 18.5% | 18.1% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Oguz Aras | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 5.3% |
| James Mullane | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 13.1% |
| Austin Stein | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 16.6% | 14.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 16.0% | 14.5% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 17.2% | 31.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.