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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+2.03vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.78+3.46vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.26+3.67vs Predicted
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4Bates College-0.40+8.15vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University0.97+2.82vs Predicted
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6Northwestern University1.49+0.17vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.82-1.78vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.67-2.25vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.59-3.06vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.78+2.94vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.27-1.06vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-4.32vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont-0.13-1.86vs Predicted
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14Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.36+0.36vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College-0.79-1.83vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09-4.92vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.42-2.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.03University of Rhode Island2.7828.8%1st Place
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5.46Brown University1.789.7%1st Place
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6.67University of Rhode Island1.267.2%1st Place
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12.15Bates College-0.400.9%1st Place
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7.82Salve Regina University0.974.8%1st Place
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6.17Northwestern University1.498.0%1st Place
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5.22Brown University1.8211.2%1st Place
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5.75Tufts University1.678.0%1st Place
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5.94Northeastern University1.598.3%1st Place
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12.94University of New Hampshire-0.780.9%1st Place
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9.94Connecticut College0.272.8%1st Place
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7.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.085.1%1st Place
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11.14University of Vermont-0.131.2%1st Place
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14.36Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.360.5%1st Place
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13.17Middlebury College-0.790.7%1st Place
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11.08Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.091.4%1st Place
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14.48Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.420.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 28.8% | 21.9% | 16.0% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 9.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Frary | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 14.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anne Berg | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 16.1% | 12.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 2.2% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 20.2% | 29.6% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 18.2% | 12.0% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 2.2% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 19.4% | 34.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.