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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.47vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.87+2.93vs Predicted
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3University of Rochester0.94+7.79vs Predicted
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4Columbia University1.65+4.21vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.61+0.48vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.36vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute2.29-0.58vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.59+0.44vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.77-3.96vs Predicted
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10Drexel University-0.33+4.45vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo-0.24+3.18vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-2.64vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.79-2.10vs Predicted
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14Queen's University-0.25-0.06vs Predicted
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15University of Toronto0.29-2.38vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy1.22-6.21vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-0.22-2.89vs Predicted
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18Penn State University-0.78-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
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4.93University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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10.79University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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8.21Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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5.48Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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4.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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6.42Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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8.44Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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5.04Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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14.45Drexel University-0.330.0%1st Place
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14.18University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
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9.36Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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10.9Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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13.94Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
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12.62University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
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9.79U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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14.11Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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15.25Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 37.6% | 23.4% | 15.7% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 9.3% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 11.2% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 9.0% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Stricek | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| James Mullane | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 16.8% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Austin Stein | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 16.7% | 12.9% |
| Oguz Aras | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 4.5% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 31.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.