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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.44vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.87+2.93vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.61+2.61vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.59+4.42vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.77+0.06vs Predicted
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6Syracuse University-0.22+8.02vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.65+1.36vs Predicted
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8University of Toronto0.29+4.52vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+0.01vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy1.22-0.07vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-6.31vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute2.29-5.33vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.79-2.05vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.94-3.62vs Predicted
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15Queen's University-0.25-0.88vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo-0.24-1.82vs Predicted
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17Drexel University-0.33-2.57vs Predicted
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18Penn State University-0.78-2.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
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4.93University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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5.61Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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8.42Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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5.06Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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14.02Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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8.36Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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12.52University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
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9.01Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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6.67Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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10.95Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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10.38University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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14.12Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
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14.18University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
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14.43Drexel University-0.330.0%1st Place
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15.29Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 36.8% | 23.3% | 17.6% | 11.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 9.2% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 7.0% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.2% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 14.4% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Oguz Aras | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Bates | 13.0% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Rochon | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Austin Stein | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 16.2% | 14.4% |
| James Mullane | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 15.0% |
| Robert Stricek | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 18.1% | 17.0% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 17.7% | 32.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.