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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.82+4.34vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+0.94vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.26+3.87vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.27+5.97vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.67+0.54vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.78-0.41vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.59-1.11vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49-1.80vs Predicted
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9Bates College-0.40+2.89vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont-0.13+1.26vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University0.97-3.28vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-4.36vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College-0.79+0.09vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09-2.96vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.78-1.92vs Predicted
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16Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.36-1.59vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.42-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.34Brown University1.8210.0%1st Place
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2.94University of Rhode Island2.7828.3%1st Place
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6.87University of Rhode Island1.266.6%1st Place
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9.97Connecticut College0.272.2%1st Place
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5.54Tufts University1.6710.7%1st Place
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5.59Brown University1.7810.1%1st Place
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5.89Northeastern University1.598.2%1st Place
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6.2Northwestern University1.497.6%1st Place
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11.89Bates College-0.401.1%1st Place
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11.26University of Vermont-0.131.2%1st Place
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7.72Salve Regina University0.975.1%1st Place
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7.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.9%1st Place
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13.09Middlebury College-0.791.1%1st Place
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11.04Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.091.6%1st Place
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13.08University of New Hampshire-0.780.7%1st Place
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14.41Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.360.4%1st Place
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14.54Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.420.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Styron | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 28.3% | 22.8% | 17.3% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| John Eastman | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 10.1% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Frary | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 4.9% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Augspurger | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 16.9% | 12.8% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Anne Berg | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 12.3% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 20.5% | 29.5% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 19.1% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.