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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+5.30vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+0.94vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.78+2.46vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.67+1.52vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.59+0.95vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+1.55vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.26-0.30vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont-0.13+3.30vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.82-3.70vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.27+0.04vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09+0.11vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.40+0.01vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University0.97-5.22vs Predicted
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14Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.36+0.44vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.78-2.04vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.79-2.89vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.42-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3Northwestern University1.497.0%1st Place
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2.94University of Rhode Island2.7828.8%1st Place
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5.46Brown University1.789.4%1st Place
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5.52Tufts University1.679.4%1st Place
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5.95Northeastern University1.598.2%1st Place
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7.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.0%1st Place
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6.7University of Rhode Island1.266.2%1st Place
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11.3University of Vermont-0.131.4%1st Place
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5.3Brown University1.8212.4%1st Place
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10.04Connecticut College0.272.8%1st Place
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11.11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.091.7%1st Place
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12.01Bates College-0.400.7%1st Place
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7.78Salve Regina University0.975.7%1st Place
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14.44Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.360.6%1st Place
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12.96University of New Hampshire-0.780.6%1st Place
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13.11Middlebury College-0.790.8%1st Place
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14.55Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.420.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 28.8% | 23.8% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 3.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 12.4% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| Cameron Frary | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 5.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 20.5% | 30.0% |
| Anne Berg | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 11.1% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 16.7% | 12.4% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 17.9% | 34.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.