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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.48vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+3.22vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute2.29+3.50vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+0.58vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.61+0.42vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.65+2.29vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.94+3.55vs Predicted
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8University of Toronto0.29+4.44vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.87-4.27vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo-0.24+4.17vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-1.87vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy1.22-2.11vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University1.49-4.39vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.79-3.23vs Predicted
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15Queen's University-0.25-1.00vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-0.33-1.77vs Predicted
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17Villanova University-0.57-2.11vs Predicted
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18Penn State University-0.78-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
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5.22Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.5Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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4.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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5.42Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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8.29Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.55University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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12.44University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
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4.73University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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14.17University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
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9.13Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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8.61Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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10.77Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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14.0Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
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14.23Drexel University-0.330.0%1st Place
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14.89Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
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15.1Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 36.5% | 24.3% | 16.4% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 7.9% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 13.0% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Oguz Aras | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Drew Gallagher | 10.0% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Mullane | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 17.2% | 13.6% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Austin Stein | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 16.0% | 12.2% |
| Robert Stricek | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 16.0% |
| Alex Heid | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 24.7% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 19.6% | 27.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.