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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+1.96vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.49+4.19vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.82+2.27vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.26+2.91vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.78+0.42vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.67-0.13vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+0.51vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.59-1.99vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont-0.13+2.10vs Predicted
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10Bates College-0.40+2.00vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.27-0.99vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University0.97-4.28vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College-0.79-0.12vs Predicted
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14Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.36+0.39vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09-3.97vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-0.78-3.00vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.42-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96University of Rhode Island2.7828.7%1st Place
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6.19Northwestern University1.498.8%1st Place
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5.27Brown University1.8210.2%1st Place
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6.91University of Rhode Island1.266.7%1st Place
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5.42Brown University1.789.1%1st Place
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5.87Tufts University1.679.2%1st Place
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7.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.5%1st Place
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6.01Northeastern University1.598.8%1st Place
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11.1University of Vermont-0.131.4%1st Place
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12.0Bates College-0.401.2%1st Place
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10.01Connecticut College0.272.4%1st Place
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7.72Salve Regina University0.974.6%1st Place
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12.88Middlebury College-0.791.5%1st Place
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14.39Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.360.4%1st Place
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11.03Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.091.5%1st Place
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13.0University of New Hampshire-0.780.9%1st Place
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14.72Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.420.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 28.7% | 22.4% | 17.2% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 10.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 2.6% |
| Cameron Frary | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grace Augspurger | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 11.8% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 21.5% | 29.3% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Anne Berg | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 11.7% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 20.2% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.