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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.38vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+2.99vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.61+2.42vs Predicted
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4U. S. Military Academy1.22+5.41vs Predicted
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5University of Rochester0.94+5.32vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+3.00vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.87-2.37vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.56+0.28vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-4.56vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.65-1.70vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.79-0.08vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University1.49-3.15vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-0.19+0.69vs Predicted
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14Queen's University-0.25-0.24vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo-0.24-1.01vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-0.78-0.65vs Predicted
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17University of Toronto0.29-4.39vs Predicted
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18Villanova University-0.57-3.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
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4.99Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.42Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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10.32University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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9.0Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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4.63University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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8.28Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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4.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.3Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.92Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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8.85Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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13.69Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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13.76Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
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13.99University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
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15.35Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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12.61University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
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14.68Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 36.9% | 25.2% | 17.5% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 8.9% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 8.2% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 12.2% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 12.6% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Liam Boyle | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tracy Venella | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 12.1% |
| Austin Stein | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| James Mullane | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 16.0% | 13.3% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 18.8% | 32.3% |
| Oguz Aras | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% |
| Alex Heid | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.