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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.37vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.58vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.87+1.75vs Predicted
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4Drexel University-0.19+9.75vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.61+0.33vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester0.94+4.45vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77-2.10vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+0.85vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.65-0.93vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University1.49-1.16vs Predicted
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11Queen's University-0.25+2.98vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo-0.24+2.26vs Predicted
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13University of Toronto0.29-0.72vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.79-3.28vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.56-6.63vs Predicted
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16Villanova University-0.57-1.12vs Predicted
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17Penn State University-0.78-1.72vs Predicted
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18U. S. Military Academy1.22-8.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
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4.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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4.75University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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13.75Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
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5.33Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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10.45University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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4.9Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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8.85Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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8.07Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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8.84Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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13.98Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
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14.26University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
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12.28University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
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10.72Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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8.37Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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14.88Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
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15.28Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 37.8% | 24.4% | 17.3% | 11.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 9.8% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 10.3% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tracy Venella | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 12.2% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 8.6% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Duncan Howes | 11.2% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Adam DeVita | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Austin Stein | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 16.1% | 12.7% |
| James Mullane | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 15.1% | 18.4% | 14.3% |
| Oguz Aras | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 3.4% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Casey Brown | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Heid | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 18.1% | 23.1% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 17.4% | 32.2% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.