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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.59vs Predicted
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2Columbia University1.65+6.29vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-0.60vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.56+4.30vs Predicted
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5University of Rochester0.94+5.32vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+2.94vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77-2.09vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.61-2.69vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.87-4.39vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.79+1.06vs Predicted
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11Penn State University-0.78+4.29vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto0.29+0.71vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy1.22-3.64vs Predicted
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14Queen's University-0.25-0.26vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University1.49-6.41vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo-0.24-1.96vs Predicted
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17Villanova University-0.57-2.16vs Predicted
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18Drexel University-0.19-4.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.29Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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2.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
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8.3Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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10.32University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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8.94Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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4.91Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.31Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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4.61University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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11.06Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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15.29Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
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12.71University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
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9.36U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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13.74Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
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8.59Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
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14.04University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
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14.84Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
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13.7Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bates | 11.4% | 14.6% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 35.9% | 26.0% | 16.6% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 10.6% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 10.0% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 12.4% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 18.8% | 32.4% |
| Oguz Aras | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Austin Stein | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 12.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| James Mullane | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 14.0% |
| Alex Heid | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 18.6% | 24.0% |
| Tracy Venella | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.