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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.67+4.67vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+0.96vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College0.27+6.91vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.26+2.73vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University0.97+2.82vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.82-0.71vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.59-1.03vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.78-2.59vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49-2.78vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont-0.13+1.21vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09+0.15vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-0.79+1.13vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.42+1.61vs Predicted
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14Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.36+0.29vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-7.46vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-0.78-2.92vs Predicted
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17Bates College-0.40-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67Tufts University1.678.3%1st Place
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2.96University of Rhode Island2.7830.1%1st Place
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9.91Connecticut College0.272.5%1st Place
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6.73University of Rhode Island1.267.1%1st Place
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7.82Salve Regina University0.974.0%1st Place
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5.29Brown University1.8210.5%1st Place
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5.97Northeastern University1.598.3%1st Place
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5.41Brown University1.7810.3%1st Place
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6.22Northwestern University1.497.3%1st Place
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11.21University of Vermont-0.131.6%1st Place
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11.15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.091.5%1st Place
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13.13Middlebury College-0.790.9%1st Place
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14.61Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.420.3%1st Place
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14.29Wentworth Institute of Technology-1.360.5%1st Place
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7.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.8%1st Place
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13.08University of New Hampshire-0.780.7%1st Place
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12.02Bates College-0.401.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Eastman | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 30.1% | 22.6% | 16.1% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Styron | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| John Van Zanten | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Grace Augspurger | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 16.8% | 12.3% |
| Kennard MacVaugh | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 19.4% | 34.6% |
| Victor Lomba | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 20.4% | 29.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Anne Berg | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 16.5% | 16.7% | 11.5% |
| Cameron Frary | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.