← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Rochester0.94+9.56vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.77+2.98vs Predicted
-
3Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+6.01vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University2.61+1.34vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Military Academy1.22+4.42vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-3.69vs Predicted
-
7University of Toronto0.29+5.42vs Predicted
-
8Webb Institute1.56+0.28vs Predicted
-
9Syracuse University1.49-0.44vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.87-5.17vs Predicted
-
11University of Buffalo-0.24+3.03vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-7.30vs Predicted
-
13Columbia University1.65-5.04vs Predicted
-
14Drexel University-0.19-0.38vs Predicted
-
15Ocean County College0.79-4.14vs Predicted
-
16Queen's University-0.25-1.93vs Predicted
-
17Penn State University-0.78-1.62vs Predicted
-
18Villanova University-0.57-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.56University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
-
4.98Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
-
9.01Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
-
5.34Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
-
9.42U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
-
2.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.4%1st Place
-
12.42University of Toronto0.290.0%1st Place
-
8.28Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
-
8.56Syracuse University1.490.0%1st Place
-
4.83University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
-
14.03University of Buffalo-0.240.0%1st Place
-
4.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
-
7.96Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
-
13.62Drexel University-0.190.0%1st Place
-
10.86Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
-
14.07Queen's University-0.250.0%1st Place
-
15.38Penn State University-0.780.0%1st Place
-
14.69Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Rochon | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Duncan Howes | 8.0% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 39.2% | 26.1% | 15.8% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oguz Aras | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| Casey Brown | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Pardini | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Mullane | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 17.9% | 13.6% |
| Andrew Bates | 11.6% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tracy Venella | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 10.8% |
| Liam Boyle | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Austin Stein | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 14.1% |
| Sarah Culp | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 18.5% | 32.8% |
| Alex Heid | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 18.9% | 21.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.