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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.55+4.30vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.80+2.54vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.18+3.42vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.26+2.15vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.60+3.20vs Predicted
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6Brown University0.79+1.58vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.43-1.41vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.69+0.04vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.21-2.64vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-3.42vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.95+1.69vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.10-2.18vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College-1.42+0.89vs Predicted
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14Bates College-0.70-1.92vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.00-4.78vs Predicted
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16Wentworth Institute of Technology-2.54-0.13vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.39-3.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.3Brown University1.5510.8%1st Place
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4.54University of Rhode Island1.8016.2%1st Place
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6.42University of Rhode Island1.188.9%1st Place
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6.15Northeastern University1.2610.2%1st Place
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8.2Connecticut College0.605.1%1st Place
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7.58Brown University0.796.2%1st Place
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5.59Tufts University1.4311.2%1st Place
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8.04Tufts University0.694.5%1st Place
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6.36Salve Regina University1.218.3%1st Place
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6.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.098.1%1st Place
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12.69Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.951.6%1st Place
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9.82University of Vermont0.102.6%1st Place
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13.89Middlebury College-1.420.9%1st Place
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12.08Bates College-0.701.5%1st Place
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10.22University of New Hampshire-0.002.7%1st Place
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15.87Wentworth Institute of Technology-2.540.2%1st Place
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13.67Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.390.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Mueller | 10.8% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 16.2% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Gary | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Helen Horangic | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Flores | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Jensen | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Cronin | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Derry | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Faivre | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 18.2% | 15.4% | 6.0% |
| Michael Hayes | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| William Procter | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 17.6% | 25.2% | 14.2% |
| Colby Green | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 16.6% | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| James Sullivan | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Cloherty | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 16.5% | 61.4% |
| Meghan Berg | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 17.9% | 24.9% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.