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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.72+4.86vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.69+3.92vs Predicted
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3University of Rochester-0.52+9.91vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.54-0.44vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-0.58vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo0.92+2.16vs Predicted
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7Ocean County College0.70+1.82vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.47-1.68vs Predicted
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9Villanova University1.15-1.61vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.22-5.53vs Predicted
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11Queen's University0.01+0.20vs Predicted
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12University of Toronto-0.08-0.34vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.10-2.33vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology-0.38-1.94vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.04-4.00vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University-1.14-1.60vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-1.68-1.43vs Predicted
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18Penn State University-2.42-1.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.86Fordham University1.720.1%1st Place
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5.92Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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12.91University of Rochester-0.520.0%1st Place
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3.56Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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4.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.2%1st Place
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8.16University of Buffalo0.920.0%1st Place
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8.82Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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6.32Columbia University1.470.1%1st Place
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7.39Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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4.47University of Pennsylvania2.220.2%1st Place
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11.2Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
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11.66University of Toronto-0.080.0%1st Place
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10.67Drexel University0.100.0%1st Place
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12.06Stevens Institute of Technology-0.380.0%1st Place
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11.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.040.0%1st Place
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14.4Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
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15.57U. S. Military Academy-1.680.0%1st Place
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16.61Penn State University-2.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johanna Monro | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Barton | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 15.2% | 10.7% | 2.6% |
| Connor Kelter | 22.4% | 19.5% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 16.1% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cem Ayanoglu | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Kearney | 15.1% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Simone Larose | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Bryan Krol | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Dylan Boland | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Peter Teague | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 1.7% |
| Andrew Mueller | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 19.1% | 20.2% | 11.0% |
| Kurt Adams | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 15.1% | 29.6% | 24.9% |
| John Driscoll | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 8.7% | 18.5% | 56.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.