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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.95vs Predicted
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2University of Buffalo0.92+6.91vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.54+1.20vs Predicted
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4University of Toronto-0.08+7.60vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.72+1.23vs Predicted
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6Queen's University0.01+5.56vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-2.01vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-2.06vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.69-2.69vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester-0.52+3.17vs Predicted
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11Drexel University0.10+0.29vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology-0.38+0.84vs Predicted
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13Villanova University1.15-5.07vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.47-7.23vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.70-5.67vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University-1.14-1.40vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-1.68-1.31vs Predicted
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18Penn State University-2.42-1.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.95University of Pennsylvania3.160.3%1st Place
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8.91University of Buffalo0.920.0%1st Place
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4.2Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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11.6University of Toronto-0.080.0%1st Place
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6.23Fordham University1.720.1%1st Place
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11.56Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
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4.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.1%1st Place
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5.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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6.31Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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13.17University of Rochester-0.520.0%1st Place
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11.29Drexel University0.100.0%1st Place
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12.84Stevens Institute of Technology-0.380.0%1st Place
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7.93Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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6.77Columbia University1.470.1%1st Place
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9.33Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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14.6Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
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15.69U. S. Military Academy-1.680.0%1st Place
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16.68Penn State University-2.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 28.8% | 24.4% | 14.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cem Ayanoglu | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 15.6% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Krol | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Johanna Monro | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Simone Larose | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 12.6% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Storino | 9.1% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Dzinbal | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Barton | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 16.3% | 10.3% | 2.7% |
| Dylan Boland | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Peter Teague | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| David Alldian | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paolo Bertolotti | 5.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 20.4% | 20.8% | 11.4% |
| Kurt Adams | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 29.7% | 25.2% |
| John Driscoll | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 20.2% | 55.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.