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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+6.64vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.23+8.57vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.73+5.36vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+2.71vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.55+0.14vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.18+4.44vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+4.39vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.41+1.39vs Predicted
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9George Washington University3.10+1.81vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.95-2.50vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-2.28vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.49-2.41vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.84-1.32vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.49-5.12vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.64-6.47vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.87-0.85vs Predicted
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17Boston University2.94-5.41vs Predicted
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18Harvard University3.49-9.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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10.57Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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8.36Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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5.14Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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10.44Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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11.39University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.0%1st Place
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9.39University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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10.81George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.5Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.72Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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9.59University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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11.68Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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8.88Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.53Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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15.15SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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11.59Boston University2.940.0%1st Place
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8.9Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Avery Fanning | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Graham Landy | 15.5% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% |
| Stephen Long | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 7.3% |
| Nate Jermain | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Roger Dorr | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% |
| William Macdonald | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Christopher Stocke | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 8.7% |
| Scott Houck | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 13.5% | 45.2% |
| Michael Saldi | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 9.6% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.