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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+6.51vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.55+3.22vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.23+7.54vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.87+10.89vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.73+3.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+5.43vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College3.18+3.42vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+0.52vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.43+0.44vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-2.98vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-3.42vs Predicted
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12George Washington University3.10-0.86vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida3.49-3.95vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.49-5.14vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.41-5.59vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.94-4.50vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.84-4.97vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.64-9.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.51Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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5.22Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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10.54Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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14.89SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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11.43University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.0%1st Place
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10.42Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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9.44Harvard University3.430.0%1st Place
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7.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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7.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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11.14George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
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9.05University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.86Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.41University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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11.5Boston University2.940.0%1st Place
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12.03Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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8.33Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Graham Landy | 12.3% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
| Arthur Libby | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 43.9% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Stephen Long | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 7.6% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Marek Zaleski | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Avery Fanning | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Scott Houck | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Nate Jermain | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| Michael Saldi | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 7.9% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| Lucas Adams | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.