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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+6.62vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.64+6.72vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+8.70vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+4.50vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.95+2.19vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.73+2.13vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.43+2.42vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.55-2.95vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.41+0.45vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-3.05vs Predicted
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11George Washington University3.10-0.12vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College3.23-1.39vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College3.18-2.67vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida3.49-5.13vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.94-3.65vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.49-6.74vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.84-5.01vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.87-3.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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8.72Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.7University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.0%1st Place
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8.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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7.19Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.13Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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9.42Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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5.05Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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9.45University of Vermont3.410.0%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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10.88George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
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10.61Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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10.33Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.87University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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11.35Boston University2.940.0%1st Place
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9.26Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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11.99Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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14.97SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Stephen Long | 2.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% |
| Alexander Stewart | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% |
| William Macdonald | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Marek Zaleski | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% |
| Graham Landy | 14.5% | 16.5% | 12.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Avery Fanning | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.3% |
| Christopher Stocke | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Michael Saldi | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 7.9% |
| Scott Houck | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 10.7% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 42.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.