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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+9.62vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.23+8.50vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.55+2.15vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+2.66vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.10+5.67vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida3.49+3.18vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.49+2.15vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.95-0.78vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.84+2.83vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.73-1.58vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-3.41vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-3.01vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.41-3.69vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.94-2.85vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.64-6.49vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-4.48vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.43-7.44vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.87-3.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.62Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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10.5Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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5.15Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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10.67George Washington University3.100.0%1st Place
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9.18University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.15Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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7.22Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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11.83Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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8.42Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.59St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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8.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.0%1st Place
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9.31University of Vermont3.410.0%1st Place
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11.15Boston University2.940.0%1st Place
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8.51Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.52University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.0%1st Place
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9.56Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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14.99SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 3.2% |
| Graham Landy | 14.0% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Roger Dorr | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% |
| Christopher Stocke | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Scott Houck | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| William Macdonald | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 8.3% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Alexander Stewart | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Nate Jermain | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Michael Saldi | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 7.3% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Stephen Long | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Marek Zaleski | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 44.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.