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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.88+5.62vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.72+5.16vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+7.42vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.83+2.60vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.55+6.68vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.73+0.94vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.52+4.89vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05+1.71vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.96+1.17vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+3.06vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-0.55vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.52-3.87vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.41-4.97vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida3.15-4.97vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-7.74vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.60vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.41-8.62vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.45-5.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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7.16Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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6.6Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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11.68University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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6.94Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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11.89Boston University2.520.0%1st Place
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9.71Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.17Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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13.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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10.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.0%1st Place
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8.13Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.03George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.03University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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7.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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13.4SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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8.38Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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12.05Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pearson Potts | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Kiss | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Edmund Cooper | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| Connor Corgard | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Arabia | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.9% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% |
| Simone Staff | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 20.5% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% |
| Michael Croteau | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Peter Maes | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 22.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.