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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.83+5.78vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.52+5.99vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+4.48vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.72+2.89vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.73+1.99vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.45+6.22vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.88-0.63vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05+1.65vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.52+3.00vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.41-1.51vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.55+0.94vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.96-1.48vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.41-4.92vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-4.23vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.15-5.69vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-5.67vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-4.03vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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7.99Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.89Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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6.99Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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12.22Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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6.37Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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9.65Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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12.0Boston University2.520.0%1st Place
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8.49Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.94University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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10.52Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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8.08George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.77St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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9.31University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
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10.33Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.0%1st Place
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12.97University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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13.21SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deirdre Lambert | 8.9% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Joseph Kiss | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.9% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 14.0% |
| Pearson Potts | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Arabia | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 11.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Steven Pelissier | 3.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 11.2% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Edmund Cooper | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% |
| Simone Staff | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 18.0% |
| Peter Maes | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 20.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.